India’s economy navigated a complex global landscape in May, showing measured moderation amid rising geopolitical tensions. While US oil production growth over the past decade has diversified global energy supply, trade uncertainties persisted with US tariffs and China’s rare earth controls. India has reduced rare earth dependence on China from three-fourths to three-fifths in the last three years while accelerating EV adoption. Domestically, mixed signals emerged: record toll collections, surging steel (9.5%) and cement (9.2%) production, strong PMI readings, and growing e-way bills contrasted with moderating credit, auto, and energy demand plus weak core infrastructure output. However, RBI’s 50bps rate cut in June, surplus liquidity conditions, above-normal monsoon forecasts, along with softening inflation, provide tailwinds for growth momentum.